My Investment Record (30) - 31st July 2016 & 31st August 2016

Current Return and performance

For July 2016,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st July 2016 - 31st July 2016) is 0.25% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 1.53%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is -3.54%, annualized to be -0.92%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 14.71% (annualized, 3.57%) 

For August 2016,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st August 2016 - 31st August 2016) is 1.79% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 6.67%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 2.89%, annualized to be 0.71%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 16.77% (annualized, 3.95%) 

Trading Activities

1. Addition of Symphony Life 1538, the company 960 million unbilled sale will start to contribute to bottom line earning, most likely starting at next financial year. 

2. Addition of MNRB (6459), it remain a tough year for MNRB as its reinsurance business suffer heavy claim and had to made large provision for foreign claim liability. I explain the reasoning in my last post, i bought some at its lowest point (around RM2.45), then the 1st quarter results of the company came out good (with EPS per quarter around 15 sen), then the company quickly rebound to above RM3. I wouldn't say this is a good stock with good management, but given the industry characteristic, with right timing we can bough it undervalued. 

3. Selling of TOMEI (7230). The performance of the company had been disappointing, even though gold price had been recovering to above $1300 level. As i need some cash for other investment, selling non-performance stock will be the only choice. 

Summary of current holding

No	Security
1023	CIMB
1066	RHB CAP
1155	Maybank
1295	Public Bank
1538	Symphony Life
1562	BJ Totoe
3069	MFCB
3719	Panasonic May
5071	Coastal
5111	TWREIT
5150	Msports
5150WA	Msports warrant
5159	YOCB
5185	Affin
5189	Maxwell
5189WA	Maxwell warrant
6459	MNRB
6939	Fiamma
7052	PADINI

My Investment Record (29) - 31st May 2016 & 30th June 2016

Current Return and performance

For May 2016,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st May 2016 - 31st May 2016) is -2.5% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -1.49%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is -3.23%, annualized to be -0.87%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 12.15% (annualized, 3.11%) 

For June 2016,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st June 2016 - 30th May 2016) is 2.03% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -1.84%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is -5.01%, annualized to be -0.49%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 14.43% (annualized, 3.58%) 

Trading Activities

1. Addition of Symphony Life 1538, the company 860 million unbilled sale will start to contribute to bottom line earning, most likely starting at next financial year. 

2. Addition of MNRB (6459), it remain a tough year for MNRB as its reinsurance business suffer heavy claim and had to made large provision for foreign claim liability. However consider this, the NAV per share is current RM 6++, even if its only earn mediocre return (say like 5%) on its net asset, it will mean more than 30 sen guarantee EPS. For insurance company, there will be time where the net claim & underwriting expense of insurance exceed the total gross earn premium. However, the company should adjust the insurance premium accordingly until at the long run, the gross earn premium equal to underwriting expense + net claim. In that case, the return on the Net Asset (NAV) is almost guaranteed. 

3. Addition of Maybank (1155), despite disappointing first quarter result, i remain optimistic that banking stocks are undervalued compared to other sectors and when time come for valuation adjustment, there could be room for profit. 

4. Addition of  Berjaya Toto (1562), with a lower entry price (around RM2.9) and a rebounce in latest quarter earning, BJ toto current valuation looks attractive again. 

Other

I had to admitted that i may have made some mistake in investing in two china based stock (MSPORT and MAXWELL), i shall cover more in details when the latest corporate events are unfold accordingly. 

Summary of current holding

No	Security
1023	CIMB
1066	RHB CAP
1155	Maybank
1295	Public Bank
1538	Symphony Life
1562	BJ Totoe
3069	MFCB
3719	Panasonic May
5071	Coastal
5111	TWREIT
5150	Msports
5150WA	Msports warrant
5159	YOCB
5185	Affin
5189	Maxwell
5189WA	Maxwell warrant
6459	MNRB
6939	Fiamma
7052	PADINI
7230	TOMEI

My Investment Record (28) - 30th April 2016

Market Overview

KLCI retreat from 1717.58 at start of April back to 1672.72pt. Reflecting weaker investment sentiment as Fed probably raising rate again (hence stronger US dollar) and crisis of 1MDB may not able to service its bond. 

Current Return and performance

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st April 2016 - 30th Aril 2016) is -2.33% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 0.24%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is -1.77%, annualized to be -0.49%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 15.03% (annualized, 3.89%) 

Trading Activities

1. Addition of Symphony Life 1538, the company 730 million unbilled sale will start to contribute to bottom line earning, most likely starting at next financial year. 

2. Addition of PADINI (7052), with recent surge in performance (revenue) the company is trading around price earning ratio of 10 when i bought in. 

Summary of current holding

My Investment Record (27) - 29th February 2016 & 31st March 2016

Market Overview

KLCI end flat at  end of February  at 1661.98. However,  following recovery of oil price and the sign that Fed is slowing its pace of raising interest rate, klci advance to 1717.58 at end of March. 

Current Return and performance

For February 2016, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st February 2016 - 29th February 2016) is -0.49% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -0.97%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is -3.76%, annualized to be -1.09%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 13.14% (annualized, 3.59%) 

For March 2016, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st March 2016 - 31st March 2016) is 4.09% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 1.84%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is -1.99%, annualized to be -0.56%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 17.77% (annualized, 4.67%) 

Trading Activities

1. Selling of  Berjaya Toto (1562), latest quarterly earning turn out to be weaker than expected, coupling with the weakening earning trend following implementation of GST, i decided to sell out realizing a small profit while waiting for the right price to back in.. 

2. Addition of MFCB (3069) through right issue, the electricity selling price for Don San Hong turn out to be 6.15 cent/kwh, results in revenue higher ($120 million) then initially estimated. (read here) It will be a good value adder in the long run, the only short term risk however is the project risk. 

3. Addition of MNRB (6459), it remain a tough year for MNRB as its reinsurance business suffer heavy claim and had to made large provision for foreign claim liability. However as in re-insurance business with higher volatility of earning, i will expect its earning to quickly bounce back. 

My Investment Record (26) - 31st December 2015 & 31st January 2015

Market Overview

KLCI continue its advance at end of december, ending up at 1685.36. However,  and 1672.16 pt at end of October & November respectively. However, following crumbling of oil price in january 2016, KLCI fall back to 1667.8 pt. 

Current Return and performance

For December 2015, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st December 2015 - 31st December 2015) is 1.08% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 0.36%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 0.72%, annualized to be 0.22%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 14.56% (annualized, 4.16%) 

For January 2016, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st January 2016 - 30th January 2016) is -0.75% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -3.53%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is -2.82%, annualized to be -0.83%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 13.70% (annualized, 3.93%) 

Trading Activities

1. Addition of RHBCAP (1066), i hold the belief that compared with other bank's average P/E of around 10, RHBCAP projected P/E of 8-9 remain a good bargain in the market. 

2. Addition of Berjaya Toto (1562), a move represent the shift of my strategy to pursuing high dividend stocks. 

My Investment Record (25) - 31st October 2015 & 30th November 2015

Market Overview

KLCI recorded two consecutive months of advancing, ending up at 1665.71 and 1672.16 pt at end of October & November respectively. 

Current Return and performance

For October 2015, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st October 2015 - 31st October 2015) is 3.06% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 2.35%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 2.66%, annualized to be 0.83%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 12.57% (annualized, 3.81%) 

For November 2015, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st September 2015 - 30th September 2015) is 0.68% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -2.29%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 0.31%, annualized to be 0.09%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 13.33% (annualized, 3.93%) 

Trading Activities

1. Addition of Coastal Contract (5071). The main business of the company consists of two division, the primary division deal with Offshore Special Vehicle with contract value sustaining beyond year 2017, the second division involved in drilling rig & jack up rig business, which just sold one drilling rig and secured a 12 years contract in jack-up rig. The main exposure is on another drilling rig set for delivered in Q4-15/Q1-16 which has yet to secured buyer/rental. The maximum exposure is RM 800 million which is about half of the net asset of the company. However weakening ringgit should be favourable to the company as majority of its business is oversea. 

I don't think Fed is raising rate soon....

The fed are looking at two main indicators, unemployment rate and inflation. 
"In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. " (source)

The maximum employment occur when unemployment rate reach between 5.0%-5.2% (source), 
which had been reached according to latest unemployment statistic from US bureau of labor statistics (here)

However, core inflation remain low at zero level (source), i believe mostly thanks to collapse in crude oil price and appreciation of dollar. As crude oil price is expected to remain low in foreseeable future (see here), and there is unlikely for dollar to depreciate soon, given all major economies around the world (EU, China, Japan) are still trying to pump liquidity to revive their economy growth pace, the core inflation rate will likely remain low in foreseeable future. 

Even if the inflation rate do climb beyond 2%, the Fed will still likely wait until the trend (inflation) become firm before taking further action, as per below statement: 

"The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."- source

The implication could be that, the longer the Fed hold off in raising rate, the less attractive it is to hold dollar asset, and the more undervalued emerging market asset could reach.