My Investment Record (27) - 29th February 2016 & 31st March 2016

Market Overview

KLCI end flat at  end of February  at 1661.98. However,  following recovery of oil price and the sign that Fed is slowing its pace of raising interest rate, klci advance to 1717.58 at end of March. 

Current Return and performance

For February 2016, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st February 2016 - 29th February 2016) is -0.49% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -0.97%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is -3.76%, annualized to be -1.09%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 13.14% (annualized, 3.59%) 

For March 2016, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st March 2016 - 31st March 2016) is 4.09% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 1.84%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is -1.99%, annualized to be -0.56%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 17.77% (annualized, 4.67%) 

Trading Activities

1. Selling of  Berjaya Toto (1562), latest quarterly earning turn out to be weaker than expected, coupling with the weakening earning trend following implementation of GST, i decided to sell out realizing a small profit while waiting for the right price to back in.. 

2. Addition of MFCB (3069) through right issue, the electricity selling price for Don San Hong turn out to be 6.15 cent/kwh, results in revenue higher ($120 million) then initially estimated. (read here) It will be a good value adder in the long run, the only short term risk however is the project risk. 

3. Addition of MNRB (6459), it remain a tough year for MNRB as its reinsurance business suffer heavy claim and had to made large provision for foreign claim liability. However as in re-insurance business with higher volatility of earning, i will expect its earning to quickly bounce back. 

My Investment Record (23) - 31st July 2015

Market Overview

KLCI end up higher in 1723.73 point, political fighting in Malaysia seems to dominate the theme of discussion in the market. Until there come to a solution state, it will be unlikely for the investor (local retail or foreign) to restore confidence and re-enter the market. 

However, i believe institutional investors who have the ability to hold longer, will continue to be the supporting forces for KLCI. There is however a higher risk that current political instability and ringgit fall will continue to manifest into a bigger storm, ultimately land as crisis  to the country. 

Current Return and performance

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st July 2015 - 31st July 2015) is 1.25% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -1.02%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 7.69%, annualized to be 2.57%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 15.42% (annualized, 5.04%) and lower than return from Fixed Deposit.

Trading Activities

1. Addition of MNRB (6459), which seems to be a loosing bet for now, as the board of directors didn't recommend any dividend for current financial years. The majority shareholders (the institutional investors might be ok with it or they want it that way), but the minority shareholders will often be loosing out when the company stop paying dividend even for a while only. 

My Investment Record (22) - 30th June 2015

Market Overview

Bursa Saham end up in 1706.64 points, 40 points lower compared to closing of previous month. 

Two events dominated KLCI performance in the past month:

- Possible of rating down grade by Fitch

- Possibility of greece defaulting from its loan. 

Both event pro-long the decline of ringgit against major safe heaven currency (like US dollar), 

which further putting pressure on local stock market (KLCI) performance. 

However, as Fitch revised the rating outlook for Malaysia, i will expect KLCI stopped its decline for next July, while trading narrowly waiting for the impact of GST to corporate earning become obvious in next cycle of financial reporting. 

Current Return and performance

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st June 2015 - 30th June 2015) is -2.06% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -0.44%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 8.79%, annualized to be 3.02%, this is lagged behind KLCI total return of 13.99% (annualized, 4.73%) and lower than return from Fixed Deposit. 


Trading Activities

1. Addition of MNRB (6459),  loss shown in quarter 3 seem to be short lived as the company quickly turn into black and record EPS of 60 sen per year. This translate to P/E ratio of about 6-7, with P/B ratio still less than 1. With current cash level, i believe the next dividend will be around 20 sen, translate to dividend yield of more than 5%.  The worrying sign however is that, the total revenue seems to be stop growing. 

2. Addition of Symphony Life (1538), its unbilled sales increased significantly from 196 million at FY 2015 Q2  to 469 million at FY 2015 Q3 and 667 million at FY 2015 Q4, guarantee of at least 2 years revenue in the future. Thus with current P/E about 6, and Price to book value around 0.4, and recently announce dividend (not yet approved by shareholder) of 5 sen (translate to dividend yield of more than 6%), the company looks attractive to me. Not to mention the company still sit on top of large parcel of land in sungai long which had yet to start develop. 

Some signs need to take note of is the quick build up of inventory level, and whether the projects launched will be take up 100% in the end. 

My Investment Record (18) - 28th February 2015

Market Overview

During the CNY month, KLCI slowly climb up 40 points, perhaps due to satisfactory corporate earning announcement. The external economic environment trend hardly changed, except for Greece at the brink of defaulting, while ECB start its quantitative easing program. Besides, as China is experiencing slow down, its central bank start to cut interest rate. When credit become cheaper across the globe, we can expect equities price to start its climb until unsustainable level. 

Current Return and performance

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st February 2015 - 28th February 2015) is 2.52% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 2.79%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 11.64%, annualized to be 4.50%, this is far lagged behind KLCI total return of 20.32% (annualized, 7.68%) and but still higher than return from Fixed Deposit according to current market rate. 


Trading Activities

1. Addition of MNRB (6459), although recent quarter results showing a loss for the insurance company, overall i still believe in the long run, insurance company like MNRB will remain profitable and produce handsome return. With share price cost only 2/3 of the book value per share, MNRB looks cheap for me. 

2. Addition of RHB Capital (1066). with latest quarter results out, RHB capital P/E ratio current stand around 10, low compared to other banks and other KLCI stocks. Few reasons why RHB's share price was low was due to possible default by 1MDB on its 2 billion loan ( RHB portion = 32%), resignation of its CEO, and fallout of merger plan with CIMB. However, with Ananda Krishnan allegedly came to the rescue (source) for 1MDB, thus repaying the loan to RHB,  my bet is RHB's business will remain stable for upcoming years. 

3. Addition of Symphony Life (1538), its unbilled sales increased significantly from 196 million at FY 2015 Q2  to 469 million at FY 2015 Q3, sign indicating that the company still has business ahead. Thus with projected P/E less than 5, and Price to book value around 0.4, the company looks attractive to me.