My Investment Record (39) - 1st February 2019 - 30th April 2019

Current Return and performance

For Feb 2019, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the Feb-2019 is 1.73% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 3.82%. 

For Mar 2019,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the Mar-2019 is -3.47%(with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -2.43%. 

For Apr 2019,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the Apr-2019 is 0.22% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 2.28%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 24.32%, annualized to be 3.32%, this underperform KLCI total return of 25.02% (annualized, 3.41%) 

Trading Activities

1. Addition of AmBank (1015)

2. Addition of CIMB (1023)

3. Addition of RHB Bank (1066)

4. Addition of HLFG (1082) 
5. Addition of Public Bank (1295)
6. Addition of Affin Bank (5185)

Except PB bank, all other banks were trading at P/E Ratio around 10-12 at the time when i bought in. Despite recent BNM decision to cut OPR rate by 0.25%, I am betting the effect of rate cut already priced in in current share price and with stable earning, consistent dividend rate characteristics these stocks were safer bet compared to others

7. Selling of Maybank (1155)
Simply because of Hyflux, if Maybank loss in hyflux loan arrangement is fully accounted for, this will reduce the EPS for maybank by magnitude of 20-30% for this year, which is not reflected in current share price yet.

8. Reduce holding in BJTOTO (1562)
I still operate by the logic explained in my previous investment record. Share price was good (ard RM2.6) at time of selling.

9. Bought some airasia (5099)
Reasons i'm reluctant to add airline stocks earlier
- they typically has huge CAPEX cost, and operate in a market that tend to be overcapacity
- their biggest cost uncertainty is on fuel price, which is highly volatile.

Things that work in favor for Airasia in next two years
- They sold and lease back majority of their aircrafts with outside investor group, this allow them to operate light in asset (and debt) in a market where their major competitor (MAS, and other airlines flying Boeing 737 MAX) are retreating.
- They hedged about half of their fuel cost for 2019 & 2020.

10. Bought some Takaful (6139)
Insurance company operate in a market (Takaful) with higher potential to growth than general insurance market. My biggest mistake was didnt bought it earlier in larger quantity

11. Bought some LPI (8621)
i like insurance business, they are probably the major reason why Warren Buffet and his Berkshire Hathaway able to grow their wealth. From P/E perspective LPI maybe a little bit expensive (18-20 ish compared to KLCI average of 15?), but its stable dividend yield (4% roughly) beat FD. Nice to hold as interim investment. 

My Investment Record (38) - 1st October 2018 - 31st January 2019

Current Return and performance

For Oct 2018, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the Oct-2018 is -4.41% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -6.79%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 12.27%, annualized to be 1.89%, this underperform KLCI total return of 27.86% (annualized, 4.07%) 

For Nov 2018,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the Nov-2018 is -1.44%(with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 2.52%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 15.1%, annualized to be 2.27%, this underperform KLCI total return of 26.03% (annualized, 3.77%) 

For Dec 2018,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the dec-2018 is 0.93% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -3.93%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 10.57%, annualized to be 1.60%, this underperform KLCI total return of 27.20% (annualized, 3.87%) 

For Jan 2019,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in Jan-2019 is -0.13% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 8.51%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 19.99%, annualized to be 2.88%, this underperform KLCI total return of 27.03% (annualized, 3.8%) 

Trading Activities

1. Addition of RHB Bank (1066)

2. Addition of HLFG (1082)

Both RHB bank and HLFG were trading at P/E Ratio around 10-12 at the time when i bought in. With stable earning, consistent dividend rate characteristics i believe both are worth to add when their price is low

3. Addition of BJToto(1562)

4. Disposal of BAT(4162)

My investment strategy with regards to the "sin" stock such as Tobacco(BAT), Number forecasting (BJ Toto) and beverage company are as such, 

Goods about them: stable earning with high dividend yields

Bads about them: as they are "sin" stock they are often targeted by government to curbing the consumption - most often done by raising tax rate on their products which in turn allow alternative products  (illegal tobacco/black market operator, e-cigarrette etc)  to takeover the market. 

These fundamentals result in the stocks had limited upside potential but nevertheless good to hold compare to placing your money with FD. 

For example, At the time i bought in, BJToto has estimated EPS of 20 sen and Dividend per share of 16 sen. This make the bought in price (ard RM2.05) attractive. You are buying into a stock with low PE (< 12) and high dividend yield (> 7%), on the other hand for BAT, with trading price around RM 37 (P/E around 20), this mean the stock had limited upside potential. 

5. Addition of YOCB(5159)

The P/E ratio was good (less than 7), the dividend yield was attractive (5 sen in total for last year). 

6. Addition of PADINI(7052)

Padini's price dropped significantly over the past few months due to dropped in profit caused by SST, Minimum wages and other increase in cost. However if i assuming the same profit amount decline for upcoming quarters, due to seasonal effect on retail apparel sales the total profit for the year can still come in around 15-20sen. 

Furthermore i believe in the management of PADINI which has proven past record in making a turnaround. 

7. Subscript to Right of Symphony Life (1538)

8. Subscript to Right and addition of MNRB (6459)

The price for both stocks nose dived for the past few months because of rights issuance exercise. This amused me as malaysia investor often react negatively (in a irrational way) when companies ask for additional capital investment from shareholder for business expansion or for working capital. As the fundamental for both companies havent changed since, it tooks nerve for me to keep buying when everyone is selling where the price keeping getting lower. 

For example for symphony life, it has unbilled sale of RM852 million where current profit forecast is around 10 sen for this financial year (while price trading ard 40sen!). 

My Investment Record (37) - 1st May 2018 - 30th September 2018

Current Return and performance

For May 2018, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in May (1st May 2018 - 31st May 2018) is -6.68% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 3.7%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 30.5%, annualized to be 4.74%, this outperforms KLCI total return of 28.42% (annualized, 4.45%) 

For June 2018,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st June 2018 - 30th June 2018) is  -2.54%(with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio is -0.3%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 30.11%, annualized to be 4.62%, this outperforms KLCI total return of 25.15% (annualized, 3.92%) 

For July 2018,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st July 2018 - 31st July 2018) is 5.77% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio is -1.54%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 28.11%, annualized to be 4.28%, this underperform KLCI total return of 32.38% (annualized, 4.85%) 

For Aug 2018,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st Aug 2018 - 31st Aug 2018) is 2.26% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio is -1.56%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 26.11%, annualized to be 3.94%, this underperform KLCI total return of 35.37% (annualized, 5.18%) 

For Sep 2018,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st Sep 2018 - 30th Sep 2018) is  -1.19%(with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio is -4.48%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 20.46%, annualized to be 3.11%, this outperforms KLCI total return of 33.76% (annualized, 4.90%) 

Trading Activities

1. Addition of HLFG (1082)

At the time of buying, HLFG was trading at P/E ratio of around 11, the EPS growth by 20% compared to the previous year, these are good reasons to add more. 

2. Addition of  Public Bank (1295)
Same with HLFG, public bank had been recorded stable growth of earning while the P/E was around 16. 

3.Disposal of BJTOTO (1562).

At one moment after GE14, BJToto Price shoots up to RM2.47, I took the opportunity to reduce the holding in my portfolio. 

4. Disposal of  BAT  (4162)
Similar to BJTOTO, BAT price rebounced after GE14 due to temporary abolish of GST, thus i took the opportunity to reduce the holding before the implementation of SST which brings uncertainty to future earning.

5 Addition of Symphony Life (1538)
Looking back in hindsight, the additions were right decision execute at the wrong timing. 
Good things about symphony life
- unbilled sales stand around 915 millions, this guarantee source of profit for next few years
- Undeveloped land at Sungai Long near East Klang Valley Expressway that can be readily developed into township which is highly demanded around klang area. 

However, due to phasing of the projects, Symphony is at the stage where the company is highly tight on cashflow to fund the project development. Thus recently it call for rights issues to raise fund.
Malaysia investors mostly view rights issues as negative as it required the existing shareholders to fork out more capitals for the stock and probably send a signal that the company (issuing rights) will have cashflow problems and unable to distribute dividends in near future.

Thus the addition is best to be done after the rights exercise completed.
The wrongly executed timings will cost me several ten thousands and dragged my whole portfolio performance down for a while. 

My Investment Record (36) - 1st Feb 2018 - 30th April 2018

Current Return and performance

For Feb 2018, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the July (1st Feb 2018 - 28th Feb 2018) is -0.40% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -0.26%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 30.66%, annualized to be 4.98%, this underperform KLCI total return of 35.85% (annualized, 5.73%) 

For March 2018,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st March 2018 - 31st March 2018) is 0.65% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -0.50%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 30.01%, annualized to be 4.81%, this  under perform KLCI total return of 36.74% (annualized, 5.76%) 

For April 2018,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st April 2018 - 30th April 2018) is 0.63% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -3.2%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 25.84%, annualized to be 4.14%, this underperform KLCI total return of 37.61% (annualized, 5.80%) 

Trading Activities

1. Disposed of CIMB (1023)

At the price of selling (> RM 7.2), i dont think CIMB had the buffer to absorp any cyclical downturn, like how its profit & shareprice performed in past 4 years. Thus selling at the peak become the option.

2. Addition of  Berjaya Toto (1562)
At the time of writing, BJToto has estimated EPS of 20 sen and Dividend per share of 16 sen. This make current price level (ard RM2.1) attractive. You are buying into a stock with low PE (< 12) and high dividend yield (> 7%), eventhough the growth potential is weak, its still a good deal. 

3. Addition of BAT (4162).
This in part is speculating. The stocks had been declining to historical low (close to RM 25) in a sense that it is being oversold. I am entering at the time hoping it will bounce back later.

4. Addition of  FIAMMA  (6939)
Low PE (ard 10), property project completing which should boost the profit. Safe bet when its price is low. 

My Investment Record (35) - 1st Jan 2018 - 31st Jan 2018

Current Return and performance

January is a particular good month for the stock investor. KLCI went up from 1796.81 to 1868.58, netting a estimated holding period return of 4.27% (with dividend included). Bank Negara raised the key interest rate by 25 bp to 3.25% on 24th Jan 2018. This expect to help the performance of banking stock, which account for 40% of my portfolio. 

Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 5.35%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 31.%, annualized to be 5.11%, this still underperform KLCI total return of 36.40% (annualized, 5.9%) 

As KLCI slowly climb back to the 2014 level before the oil price & ringgit crash, i believe the biggest uncertainty for the year will be concentrate around the outcome of General Election 14. Until the result of GE14 become clear with forming of a stable government, i will avoid fully invested into the market, keeping as much spare cash as possible. 

Trading Activities

Addition of BAT (4162) at price around RM 32.5

BAT's share price fall because of two reasons, 
1. declining legal cigarette market due to increase excise duty 
2. Removal of the stock from KLCI index, causing some investors holding it as part of the KLCI to sell it. 

With no further action by the government to further limit the legal cigarette consumption, i believe revenue & profit for BAT will be stable in the near term, which make the valuation (around P/E 16 and dividend rate of 6%) attractive at the price i add in. 

My Investment Record (34) - 1st Jul 2017 - 31st Dec 2017

Current Return and performance

For Jul 2017, 

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the July (1st July 2017 - 31st July 2017) is 0.07% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -2.42%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 27.55%, annualized to be 5.07%, this slightly outperform KLCI total return of 26.38% (annualized, 4.88%) 

For Aug 2017,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st Aug 2017 - 31st Aug2017) is 1.02% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 0.21%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 27.82%, annualized to be 5.03%, this is outperform KLCI total return of 27.67% (annualized, 5.01%) 

For Sep 2017,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st Sep 2017 - 30th Sep 2017) is -0.72% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -0.47%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 27.21%, annualized to be 4.85%, this outperform KLCI total return of 26.76% (annualized, 4.78%) 

For Oct 2017,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st Oct 2017 - 31st Oct 2017) is -0.16% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -1.68%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 25.08%, annualized to be 4.43%, this underperform KLCI total return of 26.56% (annualized, 4.66%) 

For Nov 2017,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st Nov 2017 - 30th Nov 2017) is -1.44% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is -2.31%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 22.19%, annualized to be 3.89%, this underperform KLCI total return of 24.73% (annualized, 4.3%) 

For Dec 2017,

The estimated holding period return for KLCI in the past period (1st Dec 2017 - 31st Dec 2017) is 4.88% (with dividend included). Holding Period return for my portfolio, is 1.76%. Total holding period return for my portfolio since the inception is 24.34%, annualized to be 4.17%, this underperform KLCI total return of 30.82% (annualized, 5.17%) 

Trading Activities

1. Addition of RHBCAP (1066) 
2. Addition of Hong Leong Financial Group (1082)

3. Addition of Public Bank (1295)

I like banking groups due to stability of their business, and HLFG, RHBCAP, Public Bank currently have PE ratio lower than KLCI, as i'm still positive on Malaysia Economic Growth, invest in these banking group become my choice. 

4. Addition of  Berjaya Toto (1562)
At the time of writing, BJToto has estimated EPS of 20 sen and Dividend per share of 16 sen. This make current price level (ard RM2.3) attractive. 

5. Disposed PANAMY (3719) at RM 38.3.
I think the company is well managed. However P/E at time of disposal is too high (ard 20) for a manufacturing stocks. Strengthening of ringgit is expected to have negative impact on the earning as well.

6. Addition of BAT (4162).
This in part is speculating. The stocks had been declining to historical low due to declining legal cigarette market. However as dividend is still ok (ard RM 2 per share), Entering now may get a chance to gain once the stock (and legal cigarette market) regain later.

Summary of Current Holding:

No	Security
1023	CIMB
1066	RHB CAP
1082	HLFG
1155	Maybank
1295	Public Bank
1538	Symphony Life
1562	BJTOTO
3069	MFCB
4162	BAT
5071	Coastal
5111	TWREIT
5150	Msports
5150WA	Msports warrant
5159	YOCB
5185	Affin
5189	Maxwell
5189WA	Maxwell warrant
6459	MNRB
6939	Fiamma
7052	PADINI
7103	SPRITZER