Warren Buffet Chairman's letter summary 1997-2001

Chairman Letter's 1997
In a bull market, one must avoid the error of the preening duck that quacks boastfully after a torrential rainstorm, thinking that its paddling skills have caused it to rise in the world. A right-thinking duck would instead compare its position after the downpour to that of the other ducks on the pond.

Under these circumstances, we try to exert a Ted Williams kind of discipline. In his book The Science of Hitting, Ted explains that he carved the strike zone into 77 cells, each the size of a baseball. Swinging only at balls in his "best" cell, he knew, would allow him to bat .400; reaching for balls in his "worst" spot, the low outside corner of the strike zone, would reduce him to .230. In other words, waiting for the fat pitch would mean a trip to the Hall of Fame; swinging indiscriminately would mean a ticket to the minors.

If they are in the strike zone at all, the business "pitches" we now see are just catching the lower outside corner. If we swing, we will be locked into low returns. But if we let all of today's balls go by, there can be no assurance that the next ones we see will be more to our liking. Perhaps the attractive prices of the past were the aberrations, not the full prices of today. Unlike Ted, we can't be called out if we resist three pitches that are barely in the strike zone; nevertheless, just standing there, day after day, with my bat on my shoulder is not my idea of fun. 

But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the "hamburgers" they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.

So smile when you read a headline that says "Investors lose as market falls." Edit it in your mind to "Disinvestors lose as market falls -- but investors gain." Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other. (As they say in golf matches: "Every putt makes someone happy.")

Truly outsized risks will exist in these contracts if they are not properly priced. A pernicious aspect of catastrophe insurance, however, makes it likely that mispricing, even of a severe variety, will not be discovered for a very long time. Consider, for example, the odds of throwing a 12 with a pair of dice -- 1 out of 36. Now assume that the dice will be thrown once a year; that you, the "bond-buyer," agree to pay $50 million if a 12 appears; and that for "insuring" this risk you take in an annual "premium" of $1 million. That would mean you had significantly underpriced the risk. Nevertheless, you could go along for years thinking you were making money -- indeed, easy money. There is actually a 75.4% probability that you would go for a decade without paying out a dime. Eventually, however, you would go broke.

Looking for business that are understandable; possess excellent economics; and are run by outstanding people.


The reasoning that Berkshire applies to the merger of public companies should be the calculus for all buyers. Paying a takeover premium does not make sense for any acquirer unless a) its stock is overvalued relative to the acquiree's or b) the two enterprises will earn more combined than they would separately. Predictably, acquirers normally hew to the second argument because very few are willing to acknowledge that their stock is overvalued. However, voracious buyers -- the ones that issue shares as fast as they can print them -- are tacitly conceding that point. (Often, also, they are running Wall Street's version of a chain-letter scheme.)

In some mergers there truly are major synergies -- though oftentimes the acquirer pays too much to obtain them -- but at other times the cost and revenue benefits that are projected prove illusory. Of one thing, however, be certain: If a CEO is enthused about a particularly foolish acquisition, both his internal staff and his outside advisors will come up with whatever projections are needed to justify his stance. Only in fairy tales are emperors told that they are naked.

Though we don't attempt to predict the movements of the stock market, we do try, in a very rough way, to value it. At the annual meeting last year, with the Dow at 7,071 and long-term Treasury yields at 6.89%, Charlie and I stated that we did not consider the market overvalued if 1) interest rates remained where they were or fell, and 2) American business continued to earn the remarkable returns on equity that it had recently recorded. So far, interest rates have fallen -- that's one requisite satisfied -- and returns on equity still remain exceptionally high. If they stay there -- and if interest rates hold near recent levels -- there is no reason to think of stocks as generally overvalued. On the other hand, returns on equity are not a sure thing to remain at, or even near, their present levels.

 In the summer of 1979, when equities looked cheap to me, I wrote a Forbes article entitled "You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus." At that time skepticism and disappointment prevailed, and my point was that investors should be glad of the fact, since pessimism drives down prices to truly attractive levels. Now, however, we have a very cheery consensus. That does not necessarily mean this is the wrong time to buy stocks: Corporate America is now earning far more money than it was just a few years ago, and in the presence of lower interest rates, every dollar of earnings becomes more valuable. Today's price levels, though, have materially eroded the "margin of safety" that Ben Graham identified as the cornerstone of intelligent investing.

Chairman's letter 1998

The Economics of Property-Casualty Insurance 
With the acquisition of General Re — and with GEICO’s business mushrooming — it becomes more important than ever that you understand how to evaluate an insurance company. The key determinants are: (1) the amount of float that the business generates; 
(2) its cost; and 
(3) most important of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors.


In allocating capital, activity does not correlate with achievement.
Indeed, in the fields of investments and acquisitions, frenetic behavior is often counterproductive. Therefore, Charlie and I mainly just wait for the phone to ring.

Though the two plans are an economic wash, the cash plan we are putting in will produce a vastly different

accounting result. This Alice-in-Wonderland outcome occurs because existing accounting principles ignore the cost of stock options when earnings are being calculated, even though options are a huge and increasing expense at a great many corporations. In effect, accounting principles offer management a choice: Pay employees in one form and count the cost, or pay them in another form and ignore the cost. Small wonder then that the use of options has mushroomed. This lop-sided choice has a big downside for owners, however: Though options, if properly structured, can be an appropriate, and even ideal, way to compensate and motivate top managers, they are more often wildly capricious in their distribution of rewards, inefficient as motivators, and inordinately expensive for shareholders.

Chairman Letter's 1999

If profits do indeed grow along with GDP, at about a 5% rate, the valuation placed on American business is

unlikely to climb by much more than that. Add in something for dividends, and you emerge with returns from equities that are dramatically less than most investors have either experienced in the past or expect in the future. If investor expectations become more realistic — and they almost certainly will — the market adjustment is apt to be severe, particularly in sectors in which speculation has been concentrated.

Chairman Letter's 2000

A second factor that helped us in 2000 was that the market for junk bonds dried up as the year progressed.

In the two preceding years, junk bond purchasers had relaxed their standards, buying the obligations of everweaker issuers at inappropriate prices. The effects of this laxity were felt last year in a ballooning of defaults. In this environment, “financial” buyers of businesses ¾ those who wish to buy using only a sliver of equity ¾ became unable to borrow all they thought they needed. What they could still borrow, moreover, came at a high price. Consequently, LBO operators became less aggressive in their bidding when businesses came up for sale last year. Because we analyze purchases on an all-equity basis, our evaluations did not change, which means we became considerably more competitive.

We find it meaningful when an owner cares about whom he sells to. We like to do business with someone

who loves his company, not just the money that a sale will bring him (though we certainly understand why he likes that as well). When this emotional attachment exists, it signals that important qualities will likely be found within the business: honest accounting, pride of product, respect for customers, and a loyal group of associates having a strong sense of direction. The reverse is apt to be true, also. When an owner auctions off his business, exhibiting a total lack of interest in what follows, you will frequently find that it has been dressed up for sale, particularly when the seller is a “financial owner.” And if owners behave with little regard for their business and its people, their conduct will often contaminate attitudes and practices throughout the company.

Under GAAP accounting, this “retroactive” insurance neither benefits nor penalizes our current earnings. Instead, we set up an asset called “deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance,” in an amount reflecting the difference between the premium we receive and the (higher) losses we expect to pay (for which reserves are immediately established). We then amortize this asset by making annual charges to earnings that create equivalent underwriting losses. You will find the amount of the loss that we incur from these transactions in both our quarterly and annual management discussion. By their nature, these losses will continue for many years, often stretching into decades. As an offset, though, we have the use of float ¾ lots of it.

The oracle was Aesop and his enduring, though somewhat incomplete, investment insight was “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” To flesh out this principle, you must answer only three questions. How certain are you that there are indeed birds in the bush? When will they emerge and how many will there be? What is the risk-free interest rate (which we consider to be the yield on long-term U.S. bonds)? If you can answer these three questions, you will know the maximum value of the bush ¾ and the maximum number of the birds you now possess that should be offered for it. And, of course, don’t literally think birds. Think dollars.

Aesop’s investment axiom, thus expanded and converted into dollars, is immutable. It applies to outlays for farms, oil royalties, bonds, stocks, lottery tickets, and manufacturing plants. And neither the advent of the steam engine, the harnessing of electricity nor the creation of the automobile changed the formula one iota — nor will the Internet. Just insert the correct numbers, and you can rank the attractiveness of all possible uses of capital throughout the universe.

Common yardsticks such as dividend yield, the ratio of price to earnings or to book value, and even growth rates have nothing to do with valuation except to the extent they provide clues to the amount and timing of cash flows into and from the business. Indeed, growth can destroy value if it requires cash inputs in the early years of a project or enterprise that exceed the discounted value of the cash that those assets will generate in later years.

Market commentators and investment managers who glibly refer to “growth” and “value” styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance, not their sophistication. Growth is simply a component ¾ usually a plus, sometimes a minus ¾ in the value equation.


The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities ¾ that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future ¾ will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.

When Charlie and I read reports, we have no interest in pictures of personnel, plants or products. References to EBITDA make us shudder ¾ does management think the tooth fairy pays for capital expenditures? We’re very suspicious of accounting methodology that is vague or unclear, since too often that means management wishes to hide something. And we don’t want to read messages that a public relations department or consultant has turned out. Instead, we expect a company’s CEO to explain in his or her own words what’s happening.

Chairman's letter 2001

Principles of Insurance Underwriting
When property/casualty companies are judged by their cost of float, very few stack up as satisfactory businesses. And interestingly – unlike the situation prevailing in many other industries – neither size nor brand
name determines an insurer’s profitability. Indeed, many of the biggest and best-known companies regularly
deliver mediocre results. What counts in this business is underwriting discipline. The winners are those that
unfailingly stick to three key principles:
1. They accept only those risks that they are able to properly evaluate (staying within their circle of
competence) and that, after they have evaluated all relevant factors including remote loss
scenarios, carry the expectancy of profit. These insurers ignore market-share considerations and
are sanguine about losing business to competitors that are offering foolish prices or policy
conditions.

2. They limit the business they accept in a manner that guarantees they will suffer no aggregation of
losses from a single event or from related events that will threaten their solvency. They
ceaselessly search for possible correlation among seemingly-unrelated risks.

3. They avoid business involving moral risk: No matter what the rate, trying to write good contracts
with bad people doesn’t work. While most policyholders and clients are honorable and ethical,
doing business with the few exceptions is usually expensive, sometimes extraordinarily so.

His extraordinary discipline, of course, does not eliminate losses; it does, however, prevent foolish losses. And that.s the key: Just as is the case in investing, insurers produce outstanding long-term results primarily by avoiding dumb decisions, rather than by making brilliant ones.

In insurance reporting, “loss development” is a widely used term – and one that is seriously misleading. First, a definition: Loss reserves at an insurer are not funds tucked away for a rainy day, but rather a liability account. If properly calculated, the liability states the amount that an insurer will have to pay for all losses (including associated costs) that have occurred prior to the reporting date but have not yet been paid. When
calculating the reserve, the insurer will have been notified of many of the losses it is destined to pay, but others will not yet have been reported to it. These losses are called IBNR, for incurred but not reported. Indeed, in some cases (involving, say, product liability or embezzlement) the insured itself will not yet be aware that a loss has occurred.

It’s clearly difficult for an insurer to put a figure on the ultimate cost of all such reported and unreported events. But the ability to do so with reasonable accuracy is vital. Otherwise the insurer’s managers won’t know what its actual loss costs are and how these compare to the premiums being charged.



When it becomes evident that reserves at past reporting dates understated the liability that truly existed at
the time, companies speak of “loss development.” In the year discovered, these shortfalls penalize reported
earnings because the “catch-up” costs from prior years must be added to current-year costs when results are
calculated.


“Loss development” suggests to investors that some natural, uncontrollable event has occurred in the
current year, and “reserve strengthening” implies that adequate amounts have been further buttressed. The truth, however, is that management made an error in estimation that in turn produced an error in the earnings previously reported. The losses didn’t “develop” – they were there all along. What developed was management’s
understanding of the losses (or, in the instances of chicanery, management’s willingness to finally fess up).
A more forthright label for the phenomenon at issue would be “loss costs we failed to recognize when they
occurred” (or maybe just “oops”). Underreserving, it should be noted, is a common – and serious – problem
throughout the property/casualty insurance industry.

Warren Buffet's Chairman Letter 1992-1996

chairman letter's 1992

Similarly, business growth, per se, tells us little about value.  It's true that growth often has a positive impact on value, sometimes one of spectacular proportions.  But such an effect is far from certain.

Growth benefits investors only when the business in point can invest at incremental returns that are enticing - in other words, only when each dollar used to finance the growth creates over a dollar of long-term market value.

The value of any stock, bond or business today is determined by the cash inflows and outflows - discounted at an appropriate interest rate - that can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset.

in the case of equities, the investment analyst must himself estimate the future "coupons." In contrast,
the ability of management can dramatically affect the equity "coupons."
The investment shown by the discounted-flows-of-cash calculation to be the cheapest is the one that the investor should purchase - irrespective of whether the business grows or doesn't, displays volatility or smoothness in its earnings, or carries a high price or low in relation to its current earnings and book value.

Leaving the question of price aside, the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.  The worst business to own is one that must, or will, do the opposite - that is, consistently employ ever-greater amounts of capital at very low rates of return.  Unfortunately, the first type of business is very hard to find:  Most high-return businesses need relatively little capital.  Shareholders of such a business usually will benefit if it pays out most of its earnings in dividends or makes significant stock repurchases.

First, we try to stick to businesses we believe we understand.  That means they must be relatively simple and stable in character.

Second, and equally important, we insist on a margin of safety in our purchase price


chairman letter's 1993

At Berkshire, we have no view of the future that dictates what businesses or industries we will enter.  Indeed, we think it's usually poison for a corporate giant's shareholders if it embarks upon new ventures pursuant to some grand vision.  We prefer instead to focus on the economic characteristics of businesses that we wish to own and the personal characteristics of managers with whom we wish to associate

What this little tale tells us is that tax-paying investors will realize a far, far greater sum from a single investment that compounds internally at a given rate than from a succession of investments compounding at the same rate。

The worst of these is perhaps, "You can't go broke taking a profit."  Can you imagine a CEO using this line to urge his board to sell a star subsidiary?  In our view, what makes sense in business also makes sense in stocks:  An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.

Regarding Beta, In their hunger for a single statistic to measure risk, however, they forget a fundamental principle:  It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.

In our opinion, the real risk that an investor must assess is whether his aggregate after-tax receipts from an investment (including those he receives on sale) will, over his prospective holding period, give him at least as much purchasing power as he had to begin with, plus a modest rate of interest on that initial 
stake.

1) The certainty with which the long-term economic characteristics of the business can be evaluated;

2) The certainty with which management can be evaluated, both as to its ability to realize the full potential of 
     the business and to wisely employ its cash flows;

3) The certainty with which management can be counted on to channel the rewards from the business to the 
     shareholders rather than to itself;

 4) The purchase price of the business;

 5) The levels of taxation and inflation that will be experienced and that will determine the degree by which 
      an investor's purchasing-power return is reduced from his gross return.

As Peter Lynch says, stocks of companies selling commodity-like products should come with a 
warning label:  "Competition may prove hazardous to human wealth."

For example, a business that must deal with fast-moving technology is not going to lend itself to reliable evaluations of its long-term economics.

chairman's letter 1994

We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts, which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen. 

In investing it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.  In later life, I have been surprised to find that this statement holds true in business management as well.  What a manager must do is handle the basics well and not get diverted. 

In an unregulated commodity business, a company must lower its costs to competitive levels or face extinction.

chairman's letter 1995

Buying a retailer without good management is like buying the Eiffel Tower without an elevator.

Retailing is a tough business.  During my investment career, I have watched a large number of retailers enjoy terrific growth and superb returns on equity for a period, and then suddenly nosedive, often all the way into bankruptcy.  This shooting-star phenomenon is far more common in retailing than it is in manufacturing or service businesses.  In part, this is because a retailer must stay smart, day after day.  Your competitor is 
always copying and then topping whatever you do.  Shoppers are meanwhile beckoned in every conceivable way to try a stream of new merchants.  In retailing, to coast is to fail.

the have-to-be-smart-once business.  For example, if you were smart enough to buy a network TV station 
very early in the game, you could put in a shiftless and backward nephew to run things, and the business would still do well for decades.

  Any company's level of profitability is determined by three items:  (1) what its assets earn; (2) what its liabilities cost; and (3) its utilization of "leverage" - that is, the degree to which its assets are funded by liabilities rather than by equity.  float wonderfully benefits a business - if it is obtained at a low cost.

 The unit trusts that have recently surfaced fly in the face of these goals.  They would be sold by brokers working for big commissions, would impose other burdensome costs on their shareholders, and would be marketed en masse to unsophisticated buyers, apt to be seduced by our past record and beguiled by the publicity Berkshire and I have received in recent years.  The sure outcome:  a multitude of investors destined to be disappointed.

Chairman's letter 1996

Selling fine businesses on "scary" news is usually a bad decision

The art of investing in public companies successfully is little different from the art of successfully acquiring subsidiaries.  In each case you simply want to acquire, at a sensible price, a business with excellent economics and able, honest management.  Thereafter, you need only monitor whether these qualities are being preserved.

Should you choose, however, to construct your own portfolio, there are a few thoughts worth remembering.  Intelligent investing is not complex, though that is far from saying that it is easy.  What an investor needs is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word "selected":  You don't have to be an expert on every company, or even many.  You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence.  The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.

     To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing or emerging markets.  You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these.  That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects.  In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses - How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices.

 Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now.  Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards - so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock.  You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines:  If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.  
Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value.

无关财富， 谈谈外汇储备这东西

这么说吧， 我们对外汇储备的有限知识是， 97年东南亚金融危机， 由于马来西亚没有足够的外汇储备来应对国际炒家的抛售，于是马币大幅贬值， 随之而来的股市暴跌，造成人们的财富缩水。

因此， 结论是外汇储备对维持一国的货币汇率很重要。

东南亚货币在97金融危机后的严重贬值， 反而给货币政策制定者意外发现货币被严重低估的好处。那就是，
吸引外资流入设厂， 本国产品在国际市场上更有竞争力，因此能生产出比自己能消费的还要多很多的商品， 进而从制造业开始， 创造工作机会，拉动经济增长。
我们称之为， 出口为导向的经济。 主要例子是， 中国， 马来西亚， 泰国， 印尼等。

那么， 外汇储备怎么来？
外资要进入某个国家， 比如说马来西亚好了， 它要在马来西亚买本地制造的商品， 只能使用本地流通的货币--零吉。
问题来了， 外资本身没有办法用实物换零吉（那等于是进口， 把东西拿到马来西亚去卖) , 他们能做的，是把手中有购买力的货币（比如说美金， 欧元）， 然后拿到马来西亚国家银行， 或者商业银行里去换成零吉。
在这里要注意的是， 只有国家银行的外汇资产， 才是外汇储备。 而商业银行自己持有的外汇资产，不算外汇储备。

如果一国的外汇市场是自由浮动的， 那么在一个国家严重出超（出口大于进口， 贸易严重顺差）的情况下， 由于零吉的数量有限，于是在外资哄抢的情况下， 渐渐的一美金， 一欧元所能换的零吉会越来越少， 也就是说 零吉的汇率会升值. 假定马来西亚生产的货物以零吉为标价的价格不变，这意味着我们的货物在国际市场变贵了， 国际市场的货物对我们来说变便宜了。 于是出口会减少， 入口会增加，，马来西亚的国际贸易收支会趋向平衡。 然而这对制造业的就业来说，不一定是件好事

于是有些国家会实行固定汇率， 既不管国家的经济状况如何， 国家银行（中央银行）都会以固定的汇率去兑换零吉给美金持有者。 前面说过，如果汇率兑换是在商业银行发生的， 那么就不算国家的外汇储备。 可是在国家贸易出超的情况下， 马币的实际汇率 会升值， 这样的情况下，如果商业银行把到手的美金拿去国家银行的柜台兑换， 就能换到比市场更多的零吉。 同样道理，任何人如果把到手的美金拿到国家银行的柜台去兑换， 都能换到比市场上自由兑换更多的零吉， 于是大家都用美金和国家银行换零吉，我们的外汇储备， 就这样累积。

现在回头看看97年的金融风暴， 当马币的币值被高估的时候， 为了维持马币的高币值，国家银行愿意以一美金来收购2.5马币。 炒家们，甚至是商家发现用马币和国家银行换美金比较划算， 于是纷纷把钱（或者说借来的马币）拿到国家银行的柜台去换美金， 于是外汇储备急剧减少。同时， 由于我国没有美金的印刷权， 国家银行要应对前来兑换的民众，只有用实际上贬值的马币（假设是3零吉换1美金）在国际市场上兑换美金， 再用换回来的美金换给炒家以维持货币的汇率。 其结果，是加剧了外汇储备枯竭之余，更使国家银行面临亏损

国家银行面对的亏损， 不管是因为马币估值过高， 或是马币估值过低而发生的， 这亏损并不会凭空消失， 终究会要资产来偿还。国家银行创造资产的方式只有一种， 那就是印钞票。 印钞票的后果是什么？ 通货膨胀。 所以不管币值高估还是低估了，都不是件好事。 只是因为通货膨胀的效果是隐形的， 而币值调整，不管是从高价滑落带来的国际购买力缩水， 或是由低价攀高带来的制造业的打击都是显形的，所以各国政府都在纷纷维持过高或过低的汇率。

出口拉动的经济成长实在吗？ 再回头看， 当一个国家严重顺差的时候， 他做的东西， 其实是用自己千辛万苦生产出来的实物，换来一堆花绿绿的美金。 问题是美金这个东西不能吃，不能当衣服盖， 也不能当电脑用。 再加上现在美国发现只要多印美金，就能用美金拿到出口为导向的国家换来实实在在的货物。 这种不用劳作就能享受的交易实在太好康了， 导致他们欲罢不能。于是美金的价值一直在下跌，马来西亚辛苦劳作换来得绿纸，到头来发现堆积的green back ( 美元 ）还不保值。。。。

多元化我们的外汇储备， 我们这么叫嚷着。 然而只要国家贸易顺差的现实不变， 不管我们最后换来的是美金， 欧元还是日元，储备货币会缩水的这个特点依然不会变。 关键还是回到促进进口， 也就是乘储备货币价值缩水前把钱用出去。 而促进进口的最佳方法，是让零吉汇率合理的跟随市场的步伐升值。

Chairman's letter 1987

Severe change and exceptional returns usually don't mix.  Most investors, of course, behave as if just 
the opposite were true.  That is, they usually confer the highest price-earnings ratios on exotic-sounding businesses that hold out the promise of feverish change.  That prospect lets investors fantasize about future profitability rather than face today's business realities.

The best business returns are usually achieved by companies that are doing something quite similar today to what they were doing five or ten years ago
 
Furthermore, economic terrain that is forever shifting violently is ground on which it is difficult to build a 
fortress-like business franchise.  Such a franchise is usually the key to sustained high returns. 

That makes no sense to us.  We neither understand the adding of unneeded people or activities because profits are booming, nor the cutting of essential people or activities because profitability is shrinking.  That kind of yo-yo approach is neither business-like nor humane

The insurance industry is cursed with a set of dismal economic characteristics that make for a poor long-term outlook: hundreds of competitors, ease of entry, and a product that cannot be differentiated in any meaningful way.  In such a commodity-like business, only a very low-cost operator or someone operating in a protected, and usually small, niche can sustain high profitability levels. 

When shortages exist, however, even commodity businesses flourish.

Three conditions that prevail in insurance, but not in most businesses, allow us our flexibility.  First, market share is not an important determinant of profitability: In this business, in contrast to the newspaper or grocery businesses, the economic rule is not survival of the fattest.  Second, in many sectors of insurance, including most of those in which we operate, distribution channels are not proprietary and can be easily entered: Small volume this year does not preclude huge volume next year.  Third, idle capacity - which in this industry largely 
means people - does not result in intolerable costs.  In a way that industries such as printing or steel cannot, we can operate at quarter-speed much of the time and still enjoy long-term prosperity. 

We look at the economic prospects of the business, the people in charge of running it, and the price we 
must pay.  We do not have in mind any time or price for sale.  Indeed, we are willing to hold a stock indefinitely so long as we expect the business to increase in intrinsic value at a satisfactory rate.  When investing, we view ourselves as business analysts - not as market analysts, not as macroeconomic analysts, 
and not even as security analysts. 

Unlike many in the business world, we prefer to finance in anticipation of need rather than in reaction to it.  A business obtains the best financial results possible by managing both sides of its balance sheet well.  This means obtaining the highest-possible return on assets and the lowest-possible cost on liabilities.  It would be convenient if opportunities for intelligent action on both fronts coincided.  However, reason tells us that just the opposite is likely to be the case: Tight money conditions, which translate into high costs for liabilities, will create the best opportunities for acquisitions, and cheap money will cause assets to be bid to the sky.  Our conclusion:  Action on the liability side should sometimes be taken independent of any action on the asset side.

Chairman letters 1988

If voters insist that auto insurance be priced below cost, it eventually must be sold by government. Stockholders can subsidize policyholders for a short period, but only taxpayers can subsidize them over the long term

To evaluate arbitrage situations you must answer four questions: (1) How likely is it that the promised event will indeed occur? (2) How long will your money be tied up? (3) What chance is there that something still better will transpire - a competing takeover bid, for example? and (4) What will happen if the event does not take place because of anti-trust action, financing glitches, etc.?

Chairman letters 1989

First, data from the past were analyzed and then used to set new "corrected" rates, which were subsequently put into effect by virtually all insurers. Second, the fact that almost all policies were then issued for a one-to three-year term - which meant that it took a considerable time for mispriced policies to expire - delayed the impact of new rates on revenues. These two lagged responses made
combined ratios behave much like alternating current. Meanwhile, the absence of significant price competition guaranteed that industry profits, averaged out over the cycle, would be satisfactory.

Good profits will be realized only when there is a shortage of capacity.

we simply don't care what earnings we report quarterly, or even annually, just as long as the decisions leading to those earnings (or losses) were reached intelligently.

Arbitrage positions are a substitute for short-term cash equivalents

To these issuers, zero (or PIK) bonds offer one overwhelming advantage: It is impossible to default on a promise to pay nothing

Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.

Chairman letters 1990

The reason media businesses have been so outstanding in the past was not physical growth, but rather the unusual pricing power that most participants wielded. Now, however, advertising dollars are growing slowly. In addition, retailers that do little or no media advertising (though they sometimes use the Postal Service) have gradually taken market share in certain merchandise categories. Most important of all, the number of both print and electronic advertising channels has substantially increased. As a consequence, advertising dollars are more widely dispersed and the pricing power of ad vendors has diminished. These circumstances materially reduce the intrinsic value of our major media investments and also the value of our operating unit, Buffalo News - though all remain fine businesses.

"institutional imperative:" the tendency of executives to mindlessly imitate the behavior of their peers, no matter how foolish it may be to do so,

Even though we had bought some shares at the prices prevailing before the fall, we welcomed the decline because it allowed us to pick up many more shares at the new, panic prices.
Investors who expect to be ongoing buyers of investments throughout their lifetimes should adopt a similar attitude toward market fluctuations

The most common cause of low prices is pessimism - some times pervasive, some times specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It's optimism that is the enemy of the rational buy

Chairman letters 1991

An economic franchise arises from a product or service that: (1) is needed or desired; (2) is thought by its customers to have no close substitute and; (3) is not subject to price regulation.
The existence of all three conditions will be demonstrated by a company's ability to regularly price its product or service aggressively and thereby to earn high rates of return on capital. Moreover, franchises can tolerate mis-management. Inept managers may diminish a franchise's profitability, but they cannot inflict mortal damage.

     In contrast, "a business" earns exceptional profits only if it is the low-cost operator or if supply of its product or service is tight. Tightness in supply usually does not last long. With
superior management, a company may maintain its status as a low-cost operator for a much longer time, but even then unceasingly faces the possibility of competitive attack. And a business, unlike
a franchise, can be killed by poor management

3883 Muda Holding Berhad (Overpriced)

Key Summary

Although Muda Holding Berhad had an impressive dividend paying record, the annual capital expenditure required just to keep the revenue growing/remain the same every year resulted in a negative Return on Investment Capital (ROIC) , which is a strong sell signal. 

Before the analysis 

1. The myth of earning after tax number.

The earning after tax number reflect the earning on the capital employed by a company in a particular year. It takes into account the historical cost of asset deploy to generate the revenue (registered under depreciation/amortization) but do not consider the cost of maintaining the production capacity (ie, the replacement cost). As a result, a company that adopt aggressive recognition of depreciation/amortization accounting practice will have inflated earning at the end of useful life of property, plant and equipment. But that earning (often retained ) will not be transformed into real cash disposable by the owner as long as the company need to reinvest in order to stay in the business. 

As always, i will try to illustrate it with following examples. 

Case 1, 
Company A start with a fixed asset which cost = RM 10 million. The fixed asset has useful life of 10 years. Each year, after charging 1 million as depreciation cost, company A registered profit after tax of 1 million. 

Question: How much is the company worth now? 
Answer : Less than RM 10 million. Since the company will only generate return for 10 years ( assuming no reinvestment of property). The total return receive in nominal value by the owner of the company is RM10 million. Discounting the cost of capital ( the income forego by investing the same amount into Fixed Deposit ), the Present Value of the company will be less than RM 10 million.


Case 2, 
Now , supposed that instead of distributing the RM 1 million into shareholders fund, the company opted to retain the earning by reinvest it to maintain the production capacity of the company after 10 year. How much would the company worth now? 

Answer :  The company worth only the aggregate fair value of the property, plant and equipment and nothing more. Fair value is not equal to historical cost. Most often, manufacturing plant and equipment will sell at value far below their historical cost, while only land and building might registered an appreciation. 


Now, it can be shown clearly that in both case, the company net worth is less than the stated net asset value. The inflation, will raise the cost of replacement of property, plant and equipment, while imposing a tax on "manufactured" appreciation of land and building. A retain earning is not an earning unless it can produce market value more than that. 


2. The concept of ROIC, 

Taking into the cost consideration for the company to remain in business, Warren E.Buffet proposed a concept in reviewing the actual earning power of a company. 
Return on Investment Capital (ROIC) which is Owner Earning/Invested capital. 

owner earnings = (a) reported earnings 

 + (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, 

 - ( c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment

It should be noted that, in the financial statement, the direct cost of acquisition of property, plant and equipment will not reflect the total capitalized expenditures. In fact, most of the capital expenditure will be recorded as asset under capital work in progress item. 


The concept of ROIC will put company under rapid expansion program in disadvantage, but it nonetheless serve its purpose in indicating the real cost of expansion. 


The Key Parts.

	1 year	3 year	7 year
Price	0.785
NAV	2.069
ROE	0.029	0.065	0.054
EPS	0.056	0.116	0.087
PER	14.071	6.796	9.022
Dividend	0.025	0.025	0.024
ROIC	0.029	-0.048	-0.020
OEPS	0.056	-0.079	-0.033
POER	14.071	-9.988	-23.890

At initial glance, the ROE look unsatisfied but still in positive, the PER ratio and Price to book ratio shows that the share might be undervalued. However, after adjusting for owner earning item, the ROIC, OEPS all show negative number.

Not to mention, when the company is showing accounting profit after tax of RM26 million (including the effect of tax benefit ), the board of director take home a package of average RM 4.5 million.
One would wonder, whether the expansion of the company serve the interest of the management more, or the shareholder's interest more.


Disclaimer
The data above was taken and calculated according to information supply from the company's quartery report and annual report available at the Bursa Saham website.
The author bear no responsibilities of any buying/selling action of the investor, and any profit/loss incur by the investor.

Muda Bursa Saham Website

Poh Kong (5080) Pk TOMEI (7230)

Key Summary

Both shares trade at attractive price to earning ratio. TOMEI, having an International presence which expand rapidly during past few year, was recording declining net profit margin and ROE. Poh Kong, while having strong performance these past year, seemed to overpay its director.


Before the analysis 

The jewellery retailer industry seem to be a never-will-lost-a-cent kind of business. Poh Kong and TOMEI, the two industry leader, had never recorded a year with loss. Hence, the question left for the investor, is which one outperform the other. In order to do a comparable study, we need to single out the numbers that is affected by their size, ie : Total revenue, profit after tax, net earning per share. 

Hence, the ratios that can gauge the relative strength of the management team , would be ROE, Net Profit margin, Average Revenue per store  ( for major ) , and Fixed asset utilization factor (revenue/fixed asset), Sales/inventories ratio (minor consideration) . Other factors that may aid in the decision are dividend rate and  director effect (net profit / total director remuneration package).


The Key Parts.

Note:
* Poh Kong had undergo major share capital expansion, hence PER based on non-diluted earning per share before cannot give a true picture on companys earning power.
** TOMEI group has 70 retail outlet in Malaysia with 18 retail outlet overseas (7 in Vietnam, 11 in China) . Whether the overseas retail kiosk contribute the same revenue per store for TOMEI, is a subject worth exploring further.

The Good About POHKONG,
The net profit margin is better,
The current PER is more attractive.
It achieved a higher revenue per retail store.

The Good about Tomei.
Average Return on Equity is higher.
Asset utilization, revenue/inventory, director factor are all better.


In Conclusion
Both companies are distributing dividend at the rate comparable to the rate received from Fixed Deposit. The major exception is that, the FD rate fluctuate according to Bank Negara Policy, while for Both companies, with ROE well above 10%, you can expect your dividend rate (related to historical cost of purchase) will keep growing at foreseeable future.

The choice of choosing which company to invest is rather personal, but if we are confident in the future of gold and jewellery industry as a whole, we could consider a diversification by investing in both the largest and second largest player in the field.

Tomei Bursa Saham Link 
PohKong Bursa Saham Link

Warren Buffet Chairman's letter summary 1982-1986

Chairman's letter 1982

Yardsticks seldom are discarded while yielding favorable readings.  But when results deteriorate, most managers favor disposition of the yardstick rather than disposition of the manager.

Our partial-ownership approach can be continued soundly only as long as portions of attractive businesses can be acquired at attractive prices.  We need a moderately-priced stock market to assist us in this endeavor.The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves.  But, unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do.  For the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments.
In insurance, as elsewhere, the reaction of weak managements to weak operations is often weak accounting.
we need to look at some major factors that affect levels of corporate profitability generally.  Businesses in industries with both substantial over-capacity and a “commodity” product (undifferentiated in any customer-important way by factors such as performance, appearance, service support, etc.) are prime candidates for profit troubles.  These may be escaped, true, if prices or costs are administered in some manner and thereby insulated at least partially from normal market forces.  This administration can be carried out 
(a) legally through government intervention (until recently, this category included pricing for truckers and deposit costs for financial institutions), 
(b) illegally through collusion, or 
(c) “extra-legally” through OPEC-style foreign cartelization (with tag-along benefits for domestic non-cartel operators).
   If, however, costs and prices are determined by full-bore competition, there is more than ample capacity, and the buyer cares little about whose product or distribution services he uses, industry economics are almost certain to be unexciting.  They may well be disastrous.
Hence the constant struggle of every vendor to establish and emphasize special qualities of product or service.  This works with candy bars (customers buy by brand name, not by asking for a “two-ounce candy bar”) but doesn’t work with sugar (how often do you hear, “I’ll have a cup of coffee with cream and C & H sugar, please”).
In many industries, differentiation simply can’t be made meaningful.  A few producers in such industries may consistently do well if they have a cost advantage that is both wide and sustainable.  By definition such exceptions are few, and, in many industries, are non-existent.  For the great majority of companies selling “commodity”products, a depressing equation of business economics prevails: persistent over-capacity without 
administered prices (or costs) equals poor profitability.
Of course, over-capacity may eventually self-correct, either as capacity shrinks or demand expands.  Unfortunately for the participants, such corrections often are long delayed.  When they finally occur, the rebound to prosperity frequently produces a pervasive enthusiasm for expansion that, within a few years, again creates over-capacity and a new profitless environment.  In other words, nothing fails like success.

What finally determines levels of long-term profitability in such industries is the ratio of supply-tight to supply-ample years. 
In some industries, however, capacity-tight conditions can last a long time.  Sometimes actual growth in demand will outrun forecasted growth for an extended period.  In other cases, adding capacity requires very long lead times because complicated manufacturing facilities must be planned and built.
But in the insurance business, to return to that subject, capacity can be instantly created by capital plus an underwriter’s willingness to sign his name
 ...The acquirer who nevertheless barges ahead ends up using an undervalued (market value) currency to pay for a fully valued (negotiated value) property.  In effect, the acquirer must give up $2 of value to receive $1 of value.  Under such circumstances, a marvelous business purchased at a fair sales price becomes a 
terrible buy.  For gold valued as gold cannot be purchased intelligently through the utilization of gold - or even silver - valued as lead.
There are three ways to avoid destruction of value for old owners when shares are issued for acquisitions.  One is to have a true business-value-for-business-value merger
The second route presents itself when the acquirer’s stock sells at or above its intrinsic business value.
The third solution is for the acquirer to go ahead with the acquisition, but then subsequently repurchase a quantity of shares equal to the number issued in the merger.  In this manner, what originally was a stock-for-stock merger can be converted, effectively, into a cash-for-stock acquisition


In a trade, what you are giving is just as important as what you are getting. 
We prefer:
(1) large purchases (at least $5 million of after-tax earnings),
(2) demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of little interest to us, nor are “turn-around” situations),
(3) businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt,
(4) management in place (we can’t supply it)
(5) simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it),
(6) an offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, 
            about a transaction when price is unknown).


Chairman's letter 1983

major additional investment in a terrible industry usually is about as rewarding as struggling in quicksand.
Book value is an accounting concept, recording the accumulated financial input from both contributed capital and retained earnings.  Intrinsic business value is an economic concept, estimating future cash output discounted to present value.  Book value tells you what has been put in; intrinsic business value estimates what can be taken out.
(1) The first point has nothing to do with merits of the News.  Both emigration and immigration are relatively 
  low in Buffalo.  A stable population is more interested and involved in the activities of its community than is 
  a shifting population - and, as a result, is more interested in the content of the local daily paper.  
   Increase the movement in and out of a city and penetration ratios will fall.
If the holders of a company’s stock and/or the prospective buyers attracted to it are prone to make irrational or emotion-based decisions, some pretty silly stock prices are going to appear periodically.  Manic-depressive personalities produce manic-depressive valuations.

on balance, hyperactive equity markets subvert rational capital allocation and act as pie shrinkers.  Adam Smith felt that all noncollusive acts in a free market were guided by an invisible hand that led an economy to maximum progress; our view is that casino-type markets and hair-trigger investment management act as an invisible foot that trips up and slows down a forward-moving economy


After the merger, therefore, Berkshire was left with a Goodwill asset for See’s that had two components: the $7.5 million remaining from the 1971 purchase, and $28.4 million newly created by the 40% "purchased" in 1983. Our amortization charge now will be about $1.0 million for the next 28 years, and $.7 million for the following 12 years, 2002 through 2013.

In other words, different purchase dates and prices have given us vastly different asset values and amortization charges for two pieces of the same asset.


while accounting Goodwill regularly decreased from the moment of purchase, economic Goodwill increased in irregular but very substantial fashion.

Another reality is that annual amortization charges in the future will not correspond to economic costs. It is possible, of course, that See’s economic Goodwill will disappear. But it won’t shrink in even decrements or anything remotely resembling them. What is more likely is that the Goodwill will increase – in current, if not in constant, dollars – because of inflation.

Any unleveraged business that requires some net tangible assets to operate (and almost all do) is hurt by inflation. Businesses needing little in the way of tangible assets simply are hurt the least.


Asset-heavy businesses generally earn low rates of return – rates that often barely provide enough capital to fund the inflationary needs of the existing business, with nothing left over for real growth, for distribution to owners, or for acquisition of new businesses.


During inflation, Goodwill is the gift that keeps giving.

But that statement applies, naturally, only to true economic Goodwill

Chairman's letter 1984
While first-class newspapers make excellent profits, the profits of third-rate papers are as good or better - as long as either class of paper is dominant within its community.
Once dominant, the newspaper itself, not the marketplace, determines just how good or how bad the paper will be.  Good or bad, it will prosper.
But even a poor newspaper is a bargain to most citizens simply because of its “bulletin board” value
A poor product, however, will still remain essential to most citizens, and what commands their 
attention will command the attention of advertisers.

The first point to understand is that all earnings are not created equal.  In many businesses particularly those that have high asset/profit ratios - inflation causes some or all of the reported earnings to become ersatz.  The ersatz portion - let’s call these earnings “restricted” - cannot, if the business is to retain its economic position, be distributed as dividends.  Were these earnings to be paid out, the business would lose ground in 
one or more of the following areas: its ability to maintain its unit volume of sales, its long-term competitive position, its financial strength.  No matter how conservative its payout ratio, a company that consistently distributes restricted earnings is destined for oblivion unless equity capital is otherwise infused.
Restricted earnings are seldom valueless to owners, but they often must be discounted heavily
Unrestricted earnings should be retained only when there is a reasonable prospect - backed preferably by historical evidence or, when appropriate, by a thoughtful analysis of the future - that for every dollar retained by the corporation, at least one dollar of market value will be created for owners


Chairman's letter 1985
Wild swings in market prices far above and below business value do not change thefinal gains for owners in aggregate; in the end, investor gains must equal business gains.

Ben Graham told a story 40 years ago that illustrates why investment professionals behave as they do: An oil prospector, moving to his heavenly reward, was met by St. Peter with bad news.  “You’re qualified for residence”, said St. Peter, “but, as you can see, the compound reserved for oil men is packed.  There’s no way to squeeze you in.” After thinking a moment, the prospector asked if he might say just four words to the present occupants.  That seemed harmless to St. Peter, so the prospector cupped his hands and yelled, “Oil discovered in hell.” Immediately the gate to the compound opened and all of the oil men marched out to head for the nether regions.  Impressed, St. Peter invited the prospector to move in and make himself comfortable.  The prospector paused.  “No,” he said, “I think I’ll go along with the rest of the boys.  There might be some 
truth to that rumor after all.”

We thus benefited from four factors: a bargain purchase price, a business with fine underlying economics, an able management concentrating on the interests of shareholders, and a buyer willing to pay full business value.My conclusion from my own experiences and from much observation of other businesses is that a good 
managerial record (measured by economic returns) is far more a function of what business boat you 
get into than it is of how effectively you row(though intelligence and effort help considerably, of course,
in any business, good or bad).  Some years ago I wrote: “When a management with a reputation for 
brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.” Nothing has since changed my point of view on that matter.  Should you find yourself in a chronically-leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.

No owner has ever escaped the burden of capital costs, whereas a holder of a fixed-price option bears no capital costs at all

what could be more advantageous in an intellectual contest - whether it be bridge, chess, or stock selection than to have opponents who have been taught that thinking is a waste of energy?


Chairman's letter 1986
What we do know, however, is that occasional outbreaks of those two super-contagious diseases, fear and greed, will forever occur in the investment community.  The timing of these epidemics will be unpredictable.  And the market aberrations produced by them will be equally unpredictable, both as to duration and degree.  Therefore, we never try to anticipate the arrival or departure of either disease.  Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful. 
stocks can’t outperform businesses indefinitely.Indeed, because of the heavy transaction and investment 
management costs they bear, stockholders as a whole and over the long term must inevitably underperform the companies they own.

Over time, the behavior of our currency will be determined by the behavior of our legislators.  This relationship poses a continuing threat to currency stability - and a corresponding threat to the owners of long-term bonds

Our conclusion is that in some cases the benefits of lower corporate taxes fall exclusively, or almost exclusively, upon the corporation and its shareholders, and that in other cases the benefits are entirely, or almost entirely, passed through to the customer.  What determines the outcome is the strength of the corporation’s business franchise and whether the profitability of that franchise is regulated.
scheduled 1988 tax rates, both individual and corporate, seem totally unrealistic to us.  These rates will very likely bestow a fiscal problem on Washington that will prove incompatible with price stability.  We believe, therefore, that ultimately - within, say, five years - either higher tax rates or higher inflation rates are almost certain to materialize.  And it would not surprise us to see both.
The reason this industry is likely to be an exception to our general rule is that not all major insurers will be working with identical tax equations.  Important differences will exist for several reasons: a new alternative minimum tax will materially affect some companies but not others; certain major insurers have huge loss carry-forwards that will largely shield their income from significant taxes for at least a few years; and the results of some large insurers will be folded into the consolidated returns of companies with non-insurance businesses.  These disparate conditions will produce widely varying marginal tax rates in the property/casualty industry. 
"owner earnings." These represent (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges such as Company N's items (1) and (4) less ( c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume. (If the business requires additional working capital to maintain its competitive position and unit volume, the increment also should be included in ( c) . However, businesses following the LIFO inventory method usually do not require additional working capital if unit volume does not change.)
"Cash Flow", true, may serve as a shorthand of some utility in descriptions of certain real estate businesses or other enterprises that make huge initial outlays and only tiny outlays thereafter. A company whose only holding is a bridge or an extremely long-lived gas field would be an example. But "cash flow" is meaningless in such businesses as manufacturing, retailing, extractive companies, and utilities because, for them, ( c) is always significant. To be sure, businesses of this kind may in a given year be able to defer capital spending. But over a five- or ten-year period, they must make the investment - or the business decays.

Top money tips 1: The myth of saving early

If everyone doing the same thing, you need to do more and better.

Taking an excerpt from kclau.com, top money tips preview,

" James started saving RM1000 at age 18. The brothers’ income is measly RM10,000 a year at that time. James decided to save 10% of his income. But Jeremy didn’t. Jeremy thought that RM1000 saving a year is really hard for him.  

10 years had passed by. James had never failed to set aside RM1000 every year for the past 10 years. He invested the money and got an average return of 10% per annum. Both the twin brothers were earning RM50,000 a year at age 28.  James thought he had saved enough. He stopped saving since age 28. But he still invests what he had put aside before that. Ironically, at the moment he stopped saving, his brother Jeremy started the commitment to save RM1000 a year. Jeremy was so determined that he never stopped saving a thousand ringgit every year until he reaches age 65.  

The brothers invest in the same portfolio and reap a return of average 10% per annum. Who do you think has more money at age 65? James only saved RM10,000 from age 18-27. Jeremy saved RM38,000 from age 28-65. Without doing the compounded calculation using Microsoft Excel, most people would have guessed that Jeremy would be richer. 

But the fact is that at age 65, James has RM645,617 but Jeremy only has RM403,536. James is richer than Jeremy by RM242,081! Both the brothers were doing quite well. The moral of the story is about deferring your spending. The earlier you can do it, the better it is. The earlier you can save, the less you need to sacrifice at later age. "


There is some truth to that, but there are certain assumptions in the scenario descripted that you need to be aware of.

The first assumption is that you can earned average 10% per annum every year. That rate of return is only achievable when capital are demanded and pursuited in the market. ( like the age where our parents start working) . With the development of global financial market, and increasingly more people saving for their retirement, the rate of return on safe and sound financial products have been inadequate in past decade.
Hence , lowering the rate of return to 7% per annum ( the best you can get with ASW2020), James and Jeremy will end up with RM 180,709 and RM 172,561 respectively, not much a difference.

The second assumption is that there is no inflation occuring at that period,  This is never the case in human economy history of using fiat money. Assuming, James and Jeremy will  save money which real term equivalent to RM1000 at their age 18. At 10% rate of return and  moderate inflation (3%), they will end up with RM 667,842 and RM 659,087 respectively.  At a lower rate of return(7%), Jeremy will end up with RM 336,130. While James are left with RM 203, 786.

The spreadsheet calculation can be see here.

The moral of the story is that, saving early , start investing early do give you substantial advantage to the others who don't. But if won't give you much advantage if you stop while other continue during the long term prospects.

The choice is largely depends on, how would you like to distribute the enjoyment of life brought by money, over your course of life. Some people might choose to sacrifice later, when their salary is higher, and hence less suffering in controlling consumption desire. But at some point, you will realised that, working to achieve a higher rate of return in capital, is much worthwhile than working hard to save for investment.