为什么终身监禁代替不了死刑的作用？
因为只要罪犯活着，就有可能。不管是假释， 监狱暴动， 某国家因为预算问题而采用减刑政策减少监狱囚犯数量， 人们的恻隐之心使他们容易相信死刑犯伪装的悔改之意。对那些穷凶极恶的罪犯， 我们冒不起这个风险。
因为， 监狱再苦， 穷凶极恶的罪犯总会泰然自若。而被害者的家属， 承受不了那些可能是在自己面前干下令人发指的罪行的罪犯依然逍遥自在的活着。 我们社会， 欠他们一个公正。
没错， 死刑犯的产生，和我们的社会制度， 失败的教育体制脱不了关系。 但应该改变的是我们的体制，这是我们的责任，不能因为我们没有做好责任就让受害者， 受害者的家属买单。
人总要为自己的行为负责， 哪怕你临死忏悔了， 上帝也要你自我救赎，才能上天堂。
John Coffey 不该死，要改变的是司法和审核制度。
Eduard Delacroix 忏悔了， 改变的是考虑假释制度。
'Wild Bill' Wharton， 那已经是死性不改，人群里腐烂的苹果。
就好比蝙蝠侠黑暗骑士里的小丑，有些人就是只想毁灭世界， 仁慈，只会给他们毁灭的帮助。
这东西好比Universal wealthfare, 你不能因为有些人需要帮助就制度化给全部人帮助。
你也不能因为有些人值得原谅就制度化原谅所有人。
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
《集结号》
有时候看历史为背景的战争电影，能够把交战双方的立场忘记越好。
例如《拯救大兵雷恩》， 你最好忘了里面十恶不赦的是德国人。
看《集结号》， 你最好只记住这是场共产党打国民党的战役，而不是中国人打中国人的战役。
有学过历史的人多多少少应该知道，德国在大萧条时的超级通货膨胀时期导致 希特勒的崛起， 以致引发后来的二次世界大战。 这之前，一战获胜国英法美在战争赔款上的苛刻，以及对德国经济情况的漠不关心，多少脱离不了干系。
但国共在1945-1949这四年的内战不同，本来可以和平用选票解决的事，结果用枪干子来解决了。
前者大不了导致政府难产，经济短暂停顿。 后者， 却会引申出很多历史定位的问题。
历史定位很重要，因为不管是枪杀活生生的人，或是在枪林弹雨下， 看着队友一个个被炸得血肉横飞仍然要前进，都需要别人来告诉自己，你是站在正义的一方。 但正义这个东西本来就是相对的，你如果是正义的， 别人就被逼接受自己是邪恶的。
谷子地还算幸运，他到最后还有昭雪的一天。但我不敢想象，那些连续冲阵三次的国民党将士， 他们的家属，该背着怎样的包袱过活。
看完集结号，你总该理解日本人为什么宁冒天下之不韪也要把甲级战犯供奉在靖国神社吧。。。。
例如《拯救大兵雷恩》， 你最好忘了里面十恶不赦的是德国人。
看《集结号》， 你最好只记住这是场共产党打国民党的战役，而不是中国人打中国人的战役。
有学过历史的人多多少少应该知道，德国在大萧条时的超级通货膨胀时期导致 希特勒的崛起， 以致引发后来的二次世界大战。 这之前，一战获胜国英法美在战争赔款上的苛刻，以及对德国经济情况的漠不关心，多少脱离不了干系。
但国共在1945-1949这四年的内战不同，本来可以和平用选票解决的事，结果用枪干子来解决了。
前者大不了导致政府难产，经济短暂停顿。 后者， 却会引申出很多历史定位的问题。
历史定位很重要，因为不管是枪杀活生生的人，或是在枪林弹雨下， 看着队友一个个被炸得血肉横飞仍然要前进，都需要别人来告诉自己，你是站在正义的一方。 但正义这个东西本来就是相对的，你如果是正义的， 别人就被逼接受自己是邪恶的。
谷子地还算幸运，他到最后还有昭雪的一天。但我不敢想象，那些连续冲阵三次的国民党将士， 他们的家属，该背着怎样的包袱过活。
看完集结号，你总该理解日本人为什么宁冒天下之不韪也要把甲级战犯供奉在靖国神社吧。。。。
Monday, October 18, 2010
On inflation, deficit, debt, exchange rate (complement of budget 2010-2011)
I'm not doing economic for undergraduates so the following Its just general rule of macroeconomic that i knew must be true.
Ok, the only cause of persistent inflation inside a country is demand more than supply.
This mayb caused by
(i) More money created than increase need in productivity. ( mainly by government deficit)
(ii) International commodities price increase due to raising demand globally. ( like what happened to crude oil price in 2008)
Contrary to many believes,the following do not cause long term persistent inflation.
(i) Temporary government measure in raising tax for general goods. ( Like imposing VAT, value added tax). As this is done in one-term, and demand will generally fall when price increase, thought not elastically.
(ii) Depreciation of exchange rate . first, it will not affect local wages. Second, increase price in import goods will shift customer preference to local production.
(iii) Sudden large depreciation of exchange rate . This is often the consequence of hyperinflation and bad government monetary and budgetary policy rather than the cause.
What does inflation mean? simply, the loosing real term value of every bank notes that you are holding.
In an extreme case, if the inflation rate is 25%, you will can only buy 80% of the item that you can buy now in next year.
What are the consequence of high inflation mean?
Simply, it encourage people to spend now, even if thats mean borrowing large chunk of loan.
As you will see your real-term value of saving decreasing, you will buy whatever you want now instead of waiting for some years. Like housing .
Companies will take loans to buy new production equipments , or simply make acquisition, as the real -term actual amount they need to pay back become less in the future.
As a result, economy grows, government has more revenue, and the debt burden it carry will be lessen.
So the government will like moderate inflation, as long as it didnt hurt the economy.
But the problem with inflation cause economy boom do not last long, economy growth will need productivity growth to support, else it can only be sustained by borrowing money from the future.
Government deficit will cause government debit. The consequence of high government debit are either
(i) if the goverment debit is funded by borrowing from abroad, high debit level cause foreign investor worried about ability of the government to pay back the debt, hence they start dumbing government bond in foreign exchange market, which cause the currency to depreciate. ( like what happened to Euro and Pounds when Uk gov debt, PIGS( portugal, ireland , greece , spain) debt soared)
(ii) If the government debit is funded by domestic investor( mostly pension fund), large amount of gov debt will drive the interest rate low, so low that even a PER of 30 in stock market seemed more profitable than investing in gov bond.
( PER= price earning ratio, namely price of share divided by dividend, the higher the number, the higher the price).
The only way that a government running deficit but saw the currency appreciate is either, other country are doing badly, or the country still have international trade surplus( more export than import)
Cutting government spending, or raising tax would be very painful in the short run, especially in democratic country where both will cause ruling party loosing support.
Therefore , in the long run, government will like to keep inflation moderate , deficit moderate, to grow themselves out of debt burden.As long as everything under control.
Ok, the only cause of persistent inflation inside a country is demand more than supply.
This mayb caused by
(i) More money created than increase need in productivity. ( mainly by government deficit)
(ii) International commodities price increase due to raising demand globally. ( like what happened to crude oil price in 2008)
Contrary to many believes,the following do not cause long term persistent inflation.
(i) Temporary government measure in raising tax for general goods. ( Like imposing VAT, value added tax). As this is done in one-term, and demand will generally fall when price increase, thought not elastically.
(ii) Depreciation of exchange rate . first, it will not affect local wages. Second, increase price in import goods will shift customer preference to local production.
(iii) Sudden large depreciation of exchange rate . This is often the consequence of hyperinflation and bad government monetary and budgetary policy rather than the cause.
What does inflation mean? simply, the loosing real term value of every bank notes that you are holding.
In an extreme case, if the inflation rate is 25%, you will can only buy 80% of the item that you can buy now in next year.
What are the consequence of high inflation mean?
Simply, it encourage people to spend now, even if thats mean borrowing large chunk of loan.
As you will see your real-term value of saving decreasing, you will buy whatever you want now instead of waiting for some years. Like housing .
Companies will take loans to buy new production equipments , or simply make acquisition, as the real -term actual amount they need to pay back become less in the future.
As a result, economy grows, government has more revenue, and the debt burden it carry will be lessen.
So the government will like moderate inflation, as long as it didnt hurt the economy.
But the problem with inflation cause economy boom do not last long, economy growth will need productivity growth to support, else it can only be sustained by borrowing money from the future.
Government deficit will cause government debit. The consequence of high government debit are either
(i) if the goverment debit is funded by borrowing from abroad, high debit level cause foreign investor worried about ability of the government to pay back the debt, hence they start dumbing government bond in foreign exchange market, which cause the currency to depreciate. ( like what happened to Euro and Pounds when Uk gov debt, PIGS( portugal, ireland , greece , spain) debt soared)
(ii) If the government debit is funded by domestic investor( mostly pension fund), large amount of gov debt will drive the interest rate low, so low that even a PER of 30 in stock market seemed more profitable than investing in gov bond.
( PER= price earning ratio, namely price of share divided by dividend, the higher the number, the higher the price).
The only way that a government running deficit but saw the currency appreciate is either, other country are doing badly, or the country still have international trade surplus( more export than import)
Cutting government spending, or raising tax would be very painful in the short run, especially in democratic country where both will cause ruling party loosing support.
Therefore , in the long run, government will like to keep inflation moderate , deficit moderate, to grow themselves out of debt burden.As long as everything under control.
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